So there’s 115 cardinal meeting at this moment to chose the next Pope,
The decision is made when a candidate gets 2/3 rd of the votes, the choice is probably based on interactions, theology, stance on certain subjects, etc…
but if it would be based on influence there’s no doubt the Lebanese cardinal would be a favorite to become a pope.
why? let’s examine the current situation worldwide,
But before let’s remember the role Polish Pope Jean Paul II had in breaking communism, so to an extent JP2 had a political role not only a theological one.
- What would the Election of a European Pope result => Nothing much.
- The Election of an African Pope result => wave of joy in Africa & Black People worldwide, but that have been already experienced withe the election of U.S. President Obama => it will also create some problems for the church with the big conservative white portion of world population.
- The Election of a Philippine Pope => no real influence on Asia, because the Pope Tagalog mother language is not widespread outside of the Philippines.
- The Election of a South American Pope => no real influence on south America, because the continent is already a bastion of Christianity, and furthermore it will probably get the enthusiasm a world cup gets.
- The Election of a Chinese Pope => might make the situation even more difficult for the Chinese Christians.
- The Election of an Indian Pope => would with no doubt have a big influence on the Christianity in India.
- The Election of an Arab Pope => if selecting a pope was a strategic decision, choosing an Arabic Pope at this time would be the best strategic decision, it should be either a Lebanese or an Egyptian Pope, a Lebanese would be a better choice, because the Lebanese Maronite Christians are a bigger percentage in the Lebanese Population than the Copts are, and Maronites are Catholics while Copts are mostly orthodox, furthermore the Lebanese dialect is easier to understand throughout the Arab World!
The Arab world have been through some historic events in the last few years, these events are rare, and the scale of these events in the Arab world are unique, if choosing a Pope is a strategic decision then choosing a Lebanese Pope at this time would be the best decision for the Catholic church, It will give the Catholic church more power to spread through the cracks of this destabilized region and countries, it will further rally millions of weakened Christians in the region.
Some more interesting facts:
- Patriarch Rai was appointed cardinal less than six months ago, in November 2012.
- The Pope’s last foreign visit was to Lebanon, where he signed the Apostolic Exhortation on the Middle East on Sep. 14, 2012.
- Patriarch Rai was elected patriarch after his predecessor, Patriarch Sfeir, resigned. Both now reside at the same location. The same situation might be repeated in the Vatican whereby he would be elected after the last pope’s resignation and the two would reside in the Vatican!
- Rai, 73, was elected patriarch on Mar. 15, 2011, and the birthday of Pope Benedict XVI is on Mar. 25.
I am not Christian, the above analysis was made solely from a strategic point of view.
I am also Lebanese living abroad (one of the 7+million Lebanese living outside of Lebanon)
The actual voting process can be found below:
On the afternoon of the first day, one ballot may be held. If a ballot takes place on the afternoon of the first day and no-one is elected, or no ballot had taken place, four ballots are held on each successive day: two in each morning and two in each afternoon. Before voting in the morning and again before voting in the afternoon, the electors take an oath to obey the rules of the conclave. If no result is obtained after three vote days of balloting, the process is suspended for a maximum of one day for prayer and an address by the senior Cardinal Deacon. After seven further ballots, the process may again be similarly suspended, with the address now being delivered by the senior Cardinal Priest. If, after another seven ballots, no result is achieved, voting is suspended once more, the address being delivered by the senior Cardinal Bishop. After a further seven ballots, there shall be a day of prayer, reflection and dialogue. In the following ballots, only the two names who received the most votes in the last ballot shall be eligible in a runoff election. However, the two people who are being voted on, if Cardinal electors, shall not themselves have the right to vote.
Where are the 115 cardinals choosing the pope from:
No Name Date of Birth Country Office Rank 1 Giovanni Battista Re 30 January 1934 Italy Prefect Emeritus of the Congregation for Bishops Cardinal-Bishop 2 Tarcisio Bertone 2 December 1934 Italy Secretary of State and Camerlengo of the Holy Roman Church Cardinal-Bishop 3 Antonios Naguib 18 March 1935 Egypt Patriarch emeritus of Alexandria of the Copts Cardinal-Bishop/Patriarch 4 Béchara Boutros Raï 25 February 1940 Lebanon Patriarch of Antioch of the Maronites Cardinal-Bishop/Patriarch 5 Godfried Danneels 4 June 1933 Belgium Archbishop emeritus of Mechelen-Brussels Cardinal-Priest 6 Joachim Meisner 25 December 1933 Germany Archbishop of Cologne Cardinal-Priest 7 Nicolás de Jesús López Rodríguez 31 October 1936 Dominican Republic Archbishop of Santo Domingo Cardinal-Priest 8 Roger Mahony 27 February 1936 United States Archbishop emeritus of Los Angeles Cardinal-Priest 9 Jaime Lucas Ortega y Alamino 18 October 1936 Cuba Archbishop of San Cristóbal de la Habana Cardinal-Priest 10 Jean-Claude Turcotte 26 June 1936 Canada Archbishop emeritus of Montreal Cardinal-Priest 11 Vinko Puljić 8 September 1945 Bosnia and Herzegovina Archbishop of Vrhbosna Cardinal-Priest 12 Juan Sandoval Íñiguez 28 March 1933 Mexico Archbishop emeritus of Guadalajara Cardinal-Priest 13 Antonio María Rouco Varela 24 August 1936 Spain Archbishop of Madrid Cardinal-Priest 14 Dionigi Tettamanzi 14 March 1934 Italy Archbishop emeritus of Milan Cardinal-Priest 15 Polycarp Pengo 5 August 1944 Tanzania Archbishop of Dar-es-Salaam Cardinal-Priest 16 Christoph Schönborn 22 January 1945 Austria Archbishop of Vienna Cardinal-Priest 17 Norberto Rivera Carrera 6 June 1942 Mexico Archbishop of Mexico (City) Cardinal-Priest 18 Francis George 16 January 1937 United States Archbishop of Chicago Cardinal-Priest 19 Zenon Grocholewski 11 October 1939 Poland Prefect of the Congregation for Catholic Education Cardinal-Priest 20 Crescenzio Sepe 2 June 1943 Italy Archbishop of Naples Cardinal-Priest 21 Walter Kasper 5 March 1933 Germany President emeritus of Pontifical Council for Promoting Christian Unity Cardinal-Priest 22 Ivan Dias 14 April 1936 India Prefect emeritus of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples Cardinal-Priest 23 Geraldo Majella Agnelo 19 October 1933 Brazil Archbishop emeritus of São Salvador da Bahia Cardinal-Priest 24 Audrys Bačkis 1 February 1937 Lithuania Archbishop of Vilnius Cardinal-Priest 25 Francisco Javier Errázuriz Ossa 5 September 1933 Chile Archbishop emeritus of Santiago de Chile Cardinal-Priest 26 Julio Terrazas Sandoval 7 March 1936 Bolivia Archbishop of Santa Cruz de la Sierra Cardinal-Priest 27 Wilfrid Napier 8 March 1941 South Africa Archbishop of Durban Cardinal-Priest 28 Óscar Andrés Rodríguez Maradiaga 29 December 1942 Honduras Archbishop of Tegucigalpa Cardinal-Priest 29 Juan Luis Cipriani Thorne 28 December 1943 Peru Archbishop of Lima Cardinal-Priest 30 Cláudio Hummes 8 August 1934 Brazil Prefect emeritus of Congregation for the Clergy Cardinal-Priest 31 Jorge Bergoglio 17 December 1936 Argentina Archbishop of Buenos Aires Cardinal-Priest 32 José Policarpo 26 February 1936 Portugal Patriarch of Lisbon Cardinal-Priest 33 Severino Poletto 18 March 1933 Italy Archbishop emeritus of Turin Cardinal-Priest 34 Karl Lehmann 16 May 1936 Germany Bishop of Mainz Cardinal-Priest 35 Angelo Scola 7 November 1941 Italy Archbishop of Milan Cardinal-Priest 36 Anthony Olubunmi Okogie 16 June 1936 Nigeria Archbishop emeritus of Lagos Cardinal-Priest 37 Gabriel Zubeir Wako 27 February 1941 Sudan Archbishop of Khartoum Cardinal-Priest 38 Carlos Amigo Vallejo 23 August 1934 Spain Archbishop emeritus of Seville Cardinal-Priest 39 Justin Francis Rigali 19 April 1935 United States Archbishop emeritus of Philadelphia Cardinal-Priest 40 Ennio Antonelli 18 November 1936 Italy President emeritus of the Pontifical Council for the Family Cardinal-Priest 41 Peter Turkson 11 October 1948 Ghana President of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace Cardinal-Priest 42 Telesphore Placidus Toppo 15 October 1939 India Archbishop of Ranchi Cardinal-Priest 43 George Pell 8 June 1941 Australia Archbishop of Sydney Cardinal-Priest 44 Josip Bozanić 20 March 1949 Croatia Archbishop of Zagreb Cardinal-Priest 45 Pham Minh Man 5 March 1934 Vietnam Archbishop of Ho Chi Minh City Cardinal-Priest 46 Philippe Barbarin 17 October 1950 France Archbishop of Lyon Cardinal-Priest 47 Péter Erdő 25 June 1952 Hungary Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest Cardinal-Priest 48 Marc Ouellet 8 June 1944 Canada Prefect of the Congregation for Bishops Cardinal-Priest 49 Agostino Vallini 17 April 1940 Italy Vicar General of His Holiness for the Diocese of Rome Cardinal-Priest 50 Jorge Urosa 28 August 1942 Venezuela Archbishop of Caracas Cardinal-Priest 51 Jean-Pierre Ricard 25 September 1944 France Archbishop of Bordeaux Cardinal-Priest 52 Antonio Cañizares Llovera 15 October 1945 Spain Prefect of the Congregation for Divine Worship and the Discipline of the Sacraments Cardinal-Priest 53 Seán Patrick O’Malley 29 June 1944 United States Archbishop of Boston Cardinal-Priest 54 Stanisław Dziwisz 27 April 1939 Poland Archbishop of Kraków Cardinal-Priest 55 Carlo Caffarra 1 June 1938 Italy Archbishop of Bologna Cardinal-Priest 56 Seán Brady 16 August 1939 Ireland
Archbishop of Armagh Cardinal-Priest 57 Lluís Martínez Sistach 29 April 1937 Spain Archbishop of Barcelona Cardinal-Priest 58 André Vingt-Trois 7 November 1942 France Archbishop of Paris Cardinal-Priest 59 Angelo Bagnasco 14 February 1943 Italy Archbishop of Genoa Cardinal-Priest 60 Théodore-Adrien Sarr 28 November 1936 Senegal Archbishop of Dakar Cardinal-Priest 61 Oswald Gracias 24 December 1944 India Archbishop of Bombay Cardinal-Priest 62 Francisco Robles Ortega 2 March 1949 Mexico Archbishop of Guadalajara Cardinal-Priest 63 Daniel DiNardo 23 May 1949 United States Archbishop of Galveston-Houston Cardinal-Priest 64 Odilo Scherer 21 September 1949 Brazil Archbishop of São Paulo Cardinal-Priest 65 John Njue 1944 Kenya Archbishop of Nairobi Cardinal-Priest 66 Raúl Eduardo Vela Chiriboga 1 January 1934 Ecuador Archbishop emeritus of Quito Cardinal-Priest 67 Laurent Monsengwo Pasinya 7 October 1939 Democratic Republic of the Congo Archbishopof Kinshasa Cardinal-Priest 68 Paolo Romeo 20 February 1938 Italy Archbishop of Palermo Cardinal-Priest 69 Donald Wuerl 12 November 1940 United States Archbishop of Washington Cardinal-Priest 70 Raymundo Damasceno Assis 15 February 1937 Brazil Archbishop of Aparecida Cardinal-Priest 71 Kazimierz Nycz 1 February 1950 Poland Archbishop of Warsaw Cardinal-Priest 72 Malcolm Ranjith 15 November 1947 Sri Lanka Archbishop of Colombo Cardinal-Priest 73 Reinhard Marx 21 September 1953 Germany Archbishop of Munich and Freising Cardinal-Priest 74 George Alencherry 19 April 1945 India Major Archbishop of Ernakulam-Angamaly Cardinal-Priest 75 Thomas Christopher Collins 16 January 1947 Canada Archbishop of Toronto Cardinal-Priest 76 Dominik Duka 26 April 1943 Czech Republic Archbishop of Prague Cardinal-Priest 77 Wim Eijk 22 June 1953 Netherlands Archbishop of Utrecht Cardinal-Priest 78 Giuseppe Betori 25 February 1947 Italy Archbishop of Florence Cardinal-Priest 79 Timothy M. Dolan 6 February 1950 United States Archbishop of New York Cardinal-Priest 80 Rainer Woelki 18 August 1956 Germany Archbishop of Berlin Cardinal-Priest 81 John Tong Hon 31 July 1939 China Bishop of Hong Kong Cardinal-Priest 82 Baselios Cleemis 15 June 1959 India Major Archbishop of Trivandrum Cardinal-Priest 83 John Onaiyekan 29 January 1944 Nigeria Archbishop of Abuja Cardinal-Priest 84 Rubén Salazar Gómez 22 September 1942 Colombia Archbishop of Bogotá Cardinal-Priest 85 Luis Antonio Tagle 21 June 1957 Philippines Archbishop of Manila Cardinal-Priest 86 Jean-Louis Tauran 3 April 1943 France President of the Pontifical Council for Interreligious Dialogue Cardinal-Deacon/Protodeacon 87 Attilio Nicora 16 March 1937 Italy President of Financial Information Authority Cardinal-Deacon 88 William Levada 15 June 1936 United States Prefect emeritus of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith Cardinal-Deacon 89 Franc Rodé 23 September 1934 Slovenia Prefect emeritus of Congregation for Institutes of Consecrated Life and Societies of Apostolic Life Cardinal-Deacon 90 Leonardo Sandri 18 November 1943 Argentina Prefect of the Congregation for the Oriental Churches Cardinal-Deacon 91 Giovanni Lajolo 3 January 1935 Italy President emeritus of the Pontifical Commission for Vatican City State Cardinal-Deacon 92 Paul Josef Cordes 5 September 1934 Germany President emeritus of the Pontifical Council Cor Unum Cardinal-Deacon 93 Angelo Comastri 17 September 1943 Italy Archpriest of St. Peter’s Basilica, Vicar General for the Vatican City State Cardinal-Deacon 94 Stanisław Ryłko 4 July 1945 Poland President of the Pontifical Council for the Laity Cardinal-Deacon 95 Raffaele Farina 24 September 1933 Italy Archivist and Librarian emeritus of the Holy Roman Church Cardinal-Deacon 96 Angelo Amato 8 June 1938 Italy Prefect of the Congregation for the Causes of Saints Cardinal-Deacon 97 Robert Sarah 15 June 1945 Guinea President of the Pontifical Council Cor Unum Cardinal-Deacon 98 Francesco Monterisi 28 May 1934 Italy Archpriest Emeritus of the Basilica of Saint Paul Outside the Walls Cardinal-Deacon 99 Raymond Leo Burke 30 June 1948 United States Prefect of the Supreme Tribunal of the Apostolic Signature Cardinal-Deacon 100 Kurt Koch 15 March 1950 Switzerland President of the Pontifical Council for Promoting Christian Unity Cardinal-Deacon 101 Paolo Sardi 1 September 1934 Italy Cardinal Patron of the Sovereign Military Order of Malta Cardinal-Deacon 102 Mauro Piacenza 15 September 1944 Italy Prefect of the Congregation for the Clergy Cardinal-Deacon 103 Velasio de Paolis 19 September 1935 Italy Pontifical Delegate for the administration of the Legionaries of Christ Cardinal-Deacon 104 Gianfranco Ravasi 18 October 1942 Italy President of the Pontifical Council for Culture Cardinal-Deacon 105 Fernando Filoni 15 April 1946 Italy Prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples Cardinal-Deacon 106 Manuel Monteiro de Castro 29 March 1938 Portugal Major Penitentiary Cardinal-Deacon 107 Santos Abril y Castelló 21 September 1935 Spain Archpriest of the Basilica di Santa Maria Maggiore Cardinal-Deacon 108 Antonio Maria Vegliò 3 February 1938 Italy President of the Pontifical Council for the Pastoral Care of Migrants and Itinerants Cardinal-Deacon 109 Giuseppe Bertello 1 October 1942 Italy President of the Pontifical Commission for Vatican City State Cardinal-Deacon 110 Francesco Coccopalmerio 6 March 1938 Italy President of the Pontifical Council for Legislative Texts Cardinal-Deacon 111 João Braz de Aviz 24 April 1947 Brazil Prefect of the Congregation for Institutes of Consecrated Life and Societies of Apostolic Life Cardinal-Deacon 112 Edwin Frederick O’Brien 8 April 1939 United States Grand Master of the Equestrian Order of the Holy Sepulchre of Jerusalem Cardinal-Deacon 113 Domenico Calcagno 3 February 1943 Italy President of the Administration of the Patrimony of the Apostolic See Cardinal-Deacon 114 Giuseppe Versaldi 30 July 1943 Italy President of the Prefecture for the Economic Affairs of the Holy See Cardinal-Deacon 115 James Michael Harvey 20 October 1949 United States Archpriest of the Basilica of Saint Paul Outside the Walls Cardinal-Deacon